TV ad market to shrink

France-based ad agency ZenithOptimedia’s associate firm Publicis said television channels were expected to capture 40.2 per cent of the $532 billion global ad market, the peak after three decades of growth, in 2013 before falling to 39.3 per cent of the total market in 2016.

US-based Group-M is also predicting that TV channels’ share of the global advertising market will decrease slightly in the coming year.

The agencies said the transition was the result of digital media chipping away at television channels’ dominance amid broader upheaval in the industry.

ZenithOptimedia forecasts that the internet will boost its share of the ad market from 20.6 percent in 2013 to 26.6 percent in 2016.

Within that category, mobile advertising will grow by an average of 50 percent a year between 2013 and 2016, contributing 36 percent of extra ad spending, it said.

ZenithOptimedia further said TV channels would account for 34 percent of new ad spending, with newspapers and magazines declining by an average of 1 percent and 2 percent a year.

According the agency, marketers poured money into digital ads largely at the expense of print media in recent years. TV not only held its ground but grew as marketers sought to reach mass audiences, it added

“That scale is tipping. While TV will still deliver growth in ad spending, digital media and the rise of online video are the real competitors for ad dollars,” said Jonathan Barnard, ZenithOptimedia’s head of forecasting.

“After television ad spending has grown pretty consistently for at least the last 35 years . . . there will be quite a lot of disruption to come over the next 10 years.”

ZenithOptimedia said overall mobile ads accounted for just 2.7 per cent of global ad spend in 2013 but were likely to rise to 7.7 per cent of the market by 2016, overtaking radio, magazines and outdoor ads.